New Technologies and Services Modifying the Transport-Land Use Dynamics

Automation, digitalisation, and new mobility services will reshape how we travel and how cities grow. Policies adopted today will determine whether these changes fuel urban sprawl or foster denser, more sustainable development.

New technologies, new feedback loops

New mobility technologies and services do not only create new ways of travelling but also alter how people experience travel. Over time, they may also reshape where people choose to live and work, because transport and land use are deeply interconnected.

To better understand these links, a work conducted by VTT and the Finnish Environment Institute modified the classic transport–land use feedback cycle. The new model highlights two interconnected loops: one focused on travel choices and their feedback into the transport system, and another focused on land use and the built environment. Together, these loops show how accessibility influences both individual behaviour and long-term urban development.

Two contrasting futures

The model was applied to five emerging transport concepts: automated passenger cars, robotaxis, automated public transport, shared mobility services and Mobility as a Service (MaaS). Based on literature, expert assessment and workshops, two broad development trajectories emerged.

The first trajectory is dominated by automated private cars. These vehicles reduce the “resistance” of travel by making journeys more comfortable and productive, allowing travellers to use travel time for other activities. While attractive to users, this could lead to more car use, longer trips, and additional congestion. In turn, the accessibility advantage of cars may accelerate urban sprawl, with low-density development reinforcing car dependency and undermining public transport.

The second trajectory is driven by automated public transport and shared mobility. Here, automation reduces operating costs and frees resources for more frequent services, lower fares, and smoother multimodal travel chains. Integrated with robotaxis, e-scooters and bicycles for the first and last mile, these services can make city living more attractive. In this scenario, dense and vibrant urban areas flourish, with more space available for walking, cycling, green areas and public life.

Challenges and uncertainties

Neither path is inevitable. Automated public transport may face limits if cost savings are smaller than expected or if automation requires additional staffing. Shared mobility services may struggle to compete in rural areas, leading to a growing divide between urban regions with rich service offerings and rural regions reliant on private cars. Meanwhile, automated private cars could remain too expensive for many users, delaying their widespread adoption.

Steering the outcome

Policies will play a decisive role. Road pricing and parking management can help curb excessive car use, while subsidies and regulations can support the integration of shared services with public transport. Urban planning that prioritises compact, mixed-use development strengthens the foundation for sustainable travel choices. At the same time, new regulations may be needed to ensure inclusivity, as not all groups can easily access digital or automated services.

Looking ahead

Automation and new mobility services can either reinforce car-oriented transport or open a path toward sustainable, people-centred urban development. Outcomes will depend on how technologies evolve, how services are organised, and, crucially, on the policies adopted today. The model provides a tool to anticipate impacts and to identify where interventions can most effectively shape mobility and urban futures.

This article is based on:
Lehtonen, E., Helminen, V., Mesimäki, J., Tuominen, A., Wallius, E. (2025). “Modified transport and land use feedback cycle for identifying the impact mechanisms of new transport technologies and services”. Paper presented at the 53^rd European Transport Conference (ETC 2025).

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